Real-time inflation tracking, bid recommendations that adjust as opponents overpay, CPU mock auctions for practice, market-state warnings. Draft Sharks gates the same feature set behind a $264/yr tier. We include it at $24.99.

Explainable ML

SHAP per player

Every projection comes with a SHAP-based 'why'.

Click any player and see exactly which features — target share, pass rate, age, draft capital — drove the projection. No other major fantasy tool publishes per-player feature contributions. You're not asked to trust a black box.

Backtested accuracy

3-way head-to-head

Three-way head-to-head vs FantasyPros ECR and market ADP. Nobody else publishes this.

RB 0.66 / WR 0.65 / QB 0.44 / TE 0.42 — walk-forward Spearman ρ vs actual finish, 2022-2025. On the methodology page: full head-to-head vs FantasyPros expert consensus AND market ADP. Honest read: we beat both baselines at RB and TE, beat market ADP at WR (within 0.03 of FP), and still trail at QB — that's the improvement target for next iteration. Rank correlation is one axis — our SHAP explainers, floor/ceiling quantile bands, ensemble-disagreement flag, and weekly retrains aren't on any competitor's cheatsheet.

Unlimited live sync

No sync caps

Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo — no per-draft caps.

Mock your draft 20 times, sync 5 real leagues. We don't meter it. FantasyPros caps live syncs at 10 (MVP tier) or 50 (HOF) and charges $71.88+/yr. Sync as many leagues as you want.

Model accuracy

How closely the rankings actually track end-of-season finish.

Backtested across 2022–2025 (four full seasons). For each position, we compare the model's pre-season ranking to where players actually finished. A score of 1.00 would mean perfect ranking; 0.00 would mean random. All four positions are highly significant (p<0.05).

RBrank correlation

0.66Beats ECR + ADP

Best positional edge — vacated-carry-share + Weeks-1-3 snap-share features close the gap consensus misses.

WRrank correlation

0.65Beats ADP

Within 0.03 of FantasyPros ECR; target-share + aDOT features add real value over pure market consensus.

TErank correlation

0.42Beats both

Thin starter pool magnifies variance, but our snap + WOPR signals beat consensus at every ADP tier.

QBrank correlation

0.44Trails ECR

Improvement target for next iteration — small starter sample + late-preseason job battles favor human expert consensus.

Methodology: Spearman rank correlation between pre-season model rank and end-of-season PPR rank, computed per position per season, averaged across 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. Range across the four seasons is roughly ±0.10 from the average shown. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — but consistent correlation across four independent seasons is meaningful signal.

Projections shown across this site assume standard full-PPR 12-team scoring. When you link your own league with custom rules (TE premium, half-PPR, 6pt passing TDs, etc.), the board will re-score each player against your league's ruleset.

What's included

Auction Draft Engine

Live inflation, smart bid recs, mock practice room.

Real auctions are won by knowing when the pool has cooled enough to grab value. Our engine tracks live inflation factor, surfaces 'market is hot/cool' warnings, and recommends a max bid for every player given your budget, roster need, and the live market. Practice in our CPU mock room — comes with the Draft Tool.

Live inflation trackingBid recommendationsCPU mock practiceSnake + auction

ML Projections

693 players. Ranked by what actually wins.

LightGBM model trained on 16 seasons of NFL data (2010–2025) with walk-forward validation. Every player gets a projected points per game, floor, ceiling, and availability estimate — plus a plain-English explanation of what drove the projection, including injury-context and QB-stability signals most models ignore.

16 seasons of training dataVBD rankedFloor / ceilingSHAP explanations

ADP Gap Detection

Find undervalued players before your draft.

The ADP gap overlay compares our model rank to consensus average draft position. Green means the model rates a player significantly higher than the market — historically that's where draft-day edge lives.

Model vs. ADPColor-coded gapsBoom candidate validationWeekly refresh

Live Draft Board

Real-time recommendations while you draft.

Sleeper, ESPN, or Yahoo — auto-sync your live draft. Every pick updates the board: the recommendation engine recalculates supply/demand ratios, positional scarcity, and your roster needs in real time. Compare two players side-by-side with a pros/cons breakdown before you click pick.

Tri-platform WS syncSupply/demand enginePlayer comparisonHandcuff alerts

Season-Long Tools

Eleven tools to manage your roster all season.

Unlocked by the Projections subscription. Same ML engine that powers the Draft Tool — applied to week-to-week decisions all season.

Player Board

ML projections, VBD, floor/ceiling, SHAP

Rankings

Position-by-position rankings & tiers

Waiver Wire

Top adds with matchup grading by week

Trade Analyzer

Side-by-side value with rest-of-season swing

Roster

Your lineup with swap suggestions and matchup context

Player Compare

Two-player head-to-head breakdown

Boom Candidates

ADP-gap undervalued players to target

Schedule Strength

Position-by-position SOS by week & ROS

League Grader

Grade your roster vs the league

Mock Draft

Free

Simulate drafts using your league settings

Cheatsheet PDF

Print-ready tiered cheatsheet with your notes

Player News

ESPN-fed injury + headline feed, free to browse

The model

Why VBD, and why it matters more than raw points

Value Based Drafting

A RB who scores 180 points in a league where the baseline RB scores 140 is worth more than a QB who scores 300 in a league where baseline QBs score 280. VBD measures points above the last starter you'd have to use — the true metric of draft value.

LightGBM + Walk-Forward

The projection model is a gradient-boosted tree trained on 16 seasons (2010–2025) of trailing-season stats, opportunity metrics, team context, injury reports, IR designations, QB stability, and combine data. Walk-forward validation means every prediction is tested as if deployed live — no hindsight baked in.

SHAP Explanations

For every player, the model surfaces which features drove the projection — PPR points per game, target share, carry share, team pass rate, or draft capital for rookies. You see the why, not just the number.

Pricing

Pick the tool you need.

The Draft Tool includes everything in Projections.

One-time for draft

Draft Tool

$24.99/ year

Live draft assistant powered by ML projections and VBD rankings. Sleeper sync, real-time recommendations, player comparison, and league-customized roster slots. Just for draft day.

✓/draft live board
✓/setup league sync
✓Player comparison
✓Handcuff alerts

Get Draft Tool

Coming soon

Projections

$9.99/ month

Season-long ML toolkit — projections, rankings, waiver wire, trade analyzer, start/sit, lineup optimizer, schedule strength, league grader. Refreshes weekly. Cancel any time.

✓All 11 season-long tools
✓Weekly projection refresh
✓Boom candidate alerts
✓Schedule overlays

Coming soon

Draft Tool unlocks

✓Live Sleeper / ESPN / Yahoo draft sync
✓Real-time recommendation engine
✓Player comparison side-by-side
✓Handcuff & positional scarcity alerts
✓Custom league roster slots + scoring
✓Snake & auction draft support

Projections unlocks

✓Weekly-refreshed projections — 693 players
✓Rankings + positional tiers
✓Waiver Wire (graded adds, weekly)
✓Roster tab with swap suggestions
✓Trade Analyzer + Schedule Strength
✓Boom Candidates + League Grader
✓Player Compare head-to-head
✓SHAP model explanations per player

Edge Pro Fantasy is a fantasy sports analytics tool. Not affiliated with any sportsbook or betting service.

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